Examining The Implications Of Process

juvenile conclusion- qualification hold out constitution (DAMS) applied science is often withal motifful for complex pathetic, with recent enquiry call for much than than integrative DAMS speak toes. However, scholars tend to determine dis corporate cuddlees and disagree on whether reasonable or political determination-making influencees case in more utile conclusiveness outcomes. In this plain, the authors audition these takingss by first exploring more or less of the competing speculative arguments for the litigate- pick- military strength kindred, and beca aim tally these kins by dint of with(predicate) empiric observation apply selective information from a crisis solvent perplex rehearse using an knowing agent-based DAMS.In counterpoint to former look for, findings indicate that noetic determination bear ones atomic number 18 non impelling in risks scopes, and that political closing paradees whitethorn negatively influenc e both answer pickaxe and decision potence. These results commotion data-based designate to confirm forward un fighted arguments that answer preference is an important mediating factor surrounded by the decision-making mold and its featuality. The authors conclude with a raillery of the implications of these findings and the application of agent-based simulation DAMS technologies for academic research and practice.Keywords Agent Software, Agent Technology, finis dungeon Systems (ADS), Distributed Decision Making Systems, Knowledge Management, trade protection Management, strategicalalal Planning Introduction Strategic decision-making ( vicious) involves the methods and practices organizations use to interpret opportunities and threats in the environs and then farm result decisions (Shirtwaists & Grant, 1985). Modern decommissioning embolden dodge (DAMS) technology is inside 1 0. 4018/just. 0100701 01 often also indispensable for complex no-account, with r ecent research occupation for more integrative DAMS arisees (Moral, Foregone, Cervantes, Carried, Guppy, & Agleam, 2005 Phillips-Wren, Moral, Foregoing, & Guppy, 2009). Such DAMS technologies saturnineer the image of overflowing and powerful research technology littorals with a mellow stage of external and infixed validity as easy as reliability take for merged decision support (Moral et al. , 2005 Ill, Duffy, Whit- procure 0 2010, GIG worldwide. write or distributing in fool or electronic forms without written permission of GIG Global is prohibited. International Journal Of Decision take hold System Technology, 2(3), 1-15, July- family line 2010 stem, Bayle, & McKenna, 2009 Linebacker, De Spain, McDonald, Spencer, & Clottier, 2009 Mustachios & Susann, 2009 Phillips-Wren et 2009). Conditions of uncertainty in extremely peeved environments (e. G. , crisis espouse), by nature, pass on fine-tune the sorry offset, and may limit decision making potentiality (Rami rez-Marquee & Afar, 2009). At issue is the presumed need for speed of reaction where logic dictates that a satisfactory decision that is make quickly is superior to an optimal decision made too late.Two of the near normally accepted, and widely employed decision making buttes in these linguistic contexts are political expression and procedural rationality (Frederickson & Mitchell, 1984 stag, 1 992 Eisenhower & Kickback, 1992 doyen & Sherman, 1993 hart & Binary, 1994 Reader, 2000 Hough & White, 2003 Elba & Child, 2007). ROR research advocates that political care fores go forth be more effective in these contexts, and that rational decision processes leave be less effective in unstable environments (Frederickson & Mitchell, 1984).Subsequent research considered the say-so Of processes in high pep pill environments and advocated that rational decision-making processes runament allow for faster answer and pass on be more effective than political decision-making processes in these contexts ( mercenary & Eisenhower, 1 988 Eisenhower, 1989). hart (1992) later expanded on these arguments to violate a framework for session-making processes involving a change of forms stemming from political or rational bases, and also argued that rational approaches should relate positively to force, bit more political approaches should not.Collectively, the literature on the durability of these worrisome processes crosswise a form of settings is in conflict as some studies pop the question that rational decision-making processes leave alone be positively cogitate to potential (Bourgeois & Eisenhower, 1988 Eisenhower, 1989 Hart, 1992) and political decision-making processes will not be effective (Hart, 1 992), while Others advocate for political decision- age processes and against rational decision-making processes (Frederickson & Mitchell, 1984).Given this conflict, and the fact that these differences are generally unresolved empirically, one contribution of this composition is that we hit the books the military capability implications of political and rational criminal processes. Through doing so, we offer some clarification and resolution of the counterpoint predictions and findings of Frederickson and Mitchell (1984), Bourgeois and Eisenhower (1988), and Hart (1992). Further, while the inclusion off mediating voice for repartee alternative is wellspring theorized, it is also largely untested empirically in prior work.Therefore a further contribution of this discover is that we also desire to take into account this mediating role of woof on decision effectivity. In this study we address several(prenominal) circumstantial research questions 1) Does regeneration in the decision-making process result in pas seul in reaction pickaxe 2) Does translation in repartee filling result in random variable in decision effectiveness and 3) back we also trace the effectiveness of contrastive wistful processes as mediated thr ough particular result plectrums?Since attention faecal matter influence the melancholy processes, question ternion is likely to be of more bear on than question woo. However, if we merely look at the conduce alliance surrounded by SAD processes and effectiveness (I. E. , doyen & Sherman, 1996), we might be attributing differences in effectiveness to process divergence when these disagreements did not authenticly influence choices. Thus, we need to adequately discern which SAD processes are more effective in these situations and generate the most effective outcomes.Addressing these questions helps to sort out the incorporate influences of process and choice on strategic decision-making effectiveness. This opus proceeds as follows 1) We limited review relate research on SAD, and supplement prior theory to offend hypotheses for an co-ordinated process-choice-effectiveness SAD determine 2) We take apart the good example and hypotheses through empirical summar y of information from a crisis resolution planning answer using an agent-based simulation decision support clay technology 3) We present and converse the results Of our analyses in relation to the nonplus and hypotheses right of first publication 0 201 0, GIG Global.Copying or distributing in print or electronic September 2010 3 and 4) We conclude with a handling of our findings along with implications for practitioners and future academic research. opening development Prior work by dean and Sherman (1993, 1 996) offers an integrated decision-making theoretical account, for physical body this study of SAD process-cooperativenesss. Their work examines the assumptions downstairslying the affinity amongst decision- making processes, solvent choices, and SAD effectiveness.The archetype proposes that fluctuation in decision-making process (political or rational) will bring in antithetical reaction choices, which result in stochastic variable in SAD effectiveness. Ho wever, empirical test of their illustration is limited to the relationship between political and rational decision-making processes and variation in effectiveness alone, excluding the mean(a) solution choice arable.As the potential mediating implications of the chemical reaction choice mediate variable are thereby unexamined, we widen and examine dean and Chairmans (1996) pattern to clarify the conflicting arguments in the prior SAD literature. We do this through examining the salutary lay with the inclusion of the mediating relationship of response choice through our application to an extreme decision-making context (crisis response).Our approach is as follows 1) We extend dean and Chairmans (1996) strategic decision-making relationship and effectiveness clay sculpture of variation in process, response choice, and effectiveness by expanding heir effectiveness model to complicate the potential mediating effects of intermediate choices and 2) We then examine the competi ng arguments for process effectiveness in this context from Frederickson and Mitchell (1984), Bourgeois and Eisenhower (1 988), and Hart (1992). In doyen and Chairmans (1996) model variation in the strategic decision-making process (e. . , semipolitical or reasonable approaches) produce variation in response choice, resulting in variation in effectiveness. The effectiveness outcomes so face on the hobby 1) The strategic decision-making process employ, and 2) The response schema choices implemented. In aver to clarify the conflicting dominant arguments in the literature for process effectiveness under uncertainty, as well as test the theorized mediating role of choice, we develop several base-line hypotheses to be roughly ordered with the previous literature.Replicating doyen and Chairmans (1996) model dead reckoning 1 vicissitude In strategic decommissioning process will be think to variation in effectiveness. Examining the sub elements of the implied doyen and Sherman (1996) model speculation 2 diversity in strategic decommissioning process will be think to variation in response choice. guesswork 3 wavering in response choice will be connect to variation in effectiveness.To examine the safe model as proposed by doyen and Sherman (1996), which proposes a mediating relationship but hardly examines the direct relationship, we signalize between the direct effect of SAD process on effectiveness (HI) and a mediating relationship performing through response choice. Whereas, doyen and Chairmans (1996) original model has choice as endogenic to the strategic decision-making and effectiveness relationship, we model response choice as an intermediate footstep and consider this as an expansion of the schema decision-making and effectiveness relationship.We therefore derive assumption 4 to examine whether response choice has both a mediating and direct effect Examining the full doyen and Sherman (1996) model dead reckoning 4 novelty in strategic decommissioning process and variation in response choice will be think to variation in effectiveness. Copyright C 2010, GIG Global. Copying or distributing in print or electronic 4 International Journal of Decision fight System Technology, 2(3), 1-15, To examine the conflict in the literature regarding the inequality among the Frederickson and Mitchell (1984) andBourgeois and Eisenhower (1988) propositions for uncertain and high velocity environments, as well as the Hart (1992) propositions for effectiveness by type of decision-making process, we develop hypotheses abdominal aortic aneurysm and b possible action AAA In extremely turbulent environments, sharp-witted decision-making processes should be positively tie in to effectiveness, while Political decommissioning processes should not with prevail a positive relationship with effectiveness (Bourgeois & Eisenhower, 1 988 Hart, 1992).Hypothesis b In passing turbulent environments, Rational decision-making processes should be negatively related to effectiveness, while Political consummating processes should brace a positive relationship with effectiveness (Frederickson & Mitchell, 1984). Analytical considerations Study context Crisis events (I. E. , inseparable disasters, terrorism, etc. ) are environments characterized by variable levels of turbulence and ambiguity (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks, 2004).While judicature organizations differ from those in the mystic sector, research in the management field on SAD may be applicable to presidential term organizations transaction with crisis events. For example, the shopping center task of organizations is the creation and/or keep of a fit between the organizations knowledgeable strengths and capabilities and the demands placed on them by their environments.Government organizations essential also draw upon whimsical resources and capabilities across various departments and levels of government to resolve to challenges in their env ironments. Similarly, the levels of turbulence and ambiguity present in a government agency direct environment may also be direct contributors to the difficulties intrinsic to SAD in these contexts. The nature of the environmental pressure, turbidity, and outcome implications make this a unique and challenging operational environment.Prior related work on this topic from some other fields includes the development of fatherland abnegation team strategy for the White business firm (KUDUS, 2004), the example of disease extravasations (Ravager & Longing, 1985 Kurd & Hare, 2001 Kaplan, craft, & win, 2002, 2003 Bank, Gull, Kumar, Marathon, Cravings, Tutorial, & Wang, 2004 Craft, Win, & Wilkins, 2005). Further uses shit included numerous academic, government, and practitioner publications on epidemiological, terrorism response, and fatherland security and defense strategies (Deutsche, 1 963 Hoffman, 1981 Hugh & Selves, 2002 Ramirez-Marquee & Afar, 2009).sampling selective inform ation We test our model and hypotheses using data nailed from a multi-step approach consisting of an try out (a U. S. Department of country of origin trade protection readiness object lesson called metrical repartee (MR.)) in conjunction with an intelligent agent-based simulation. We use this data to examine the panoptic Dean and Sherman (1996) model and the associated hypotheses for variation in SAD process, choice, and effectiveness. We use a computational experiment methodological approach to do this.This approach consists of two steps 1) victimisation a validated survey shaft to collect data on strategy process and choice from a science lab experiment with factual practitioners grouped into several response teams and 2) An intelligent agent-based simulation utilised in the custom to produce data on the effectiveness of the groups SAD processes and response choices. We test our model and its hypotheses through empirical analysis of a sub taste of 268 combine obser vations from the survey and simulation data poised from the exercise. Better 2010 5 mensurable Response Exercise. The MR. motherland Security training exercise consisted of nine teams of charitable agents comprised of triplet to five individuals each(prenominal) (representing their actual operational responsibilities in most asses) to play the roles of the Departments of homeland Security ( swear out), Health and Human serve ( saucer), and Transportation (EDT) at the local, state, and federal levels.These man agents operated In a Joint trading operations Center environment where they were able to punish a variety of decisions and respond interactively to changes in the feignd environment the rough the exercise. modeling Model. The thrifty Response training exercise utilizes a synthetic environment as the decision support establishment technology for the exercise. This system uses a propulsive practical(prenominal) computer simulation environment to imitate the irru ption ND dispersion of a biological agent on a mid-sized city in the United States.This vol whoremasteric eruption hits tens of thousands of computer-based intelligent agents. These agents approximate the diversity of behavioural characteristics and demographics of the actual modeled cosmos for the city. Additionally, we utilized pathogen-specific data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the simulation model to ensure the effort takes place in a pictorial manner on the practical(prenominal) universe of intelligent agents. Further, the organizational aspects of the simulation model incorporate data from actual DISH and CDC response plans.The simulated scenario therefore replicates the actual characteristics Of a real-world advance in which the decommissioning process and response strategy choice tramp significantly affect outcomes in harm of infection rate, contagion spread, population expiry rate, and public mood. Given these factors, these types of decision suppo rt system technologies offer a mystifying and dynamic simulation environment, which largely alleviates the commons concerns antecedently associated with using simplistic homegrown or off-the-shelf simulation tools in academic research (Linebacker et al. 2009 Mustachios & Susann, 2009). Specifically, our training exercise utilizes thousands of diverse actor decisions on a variety of teams, at multiple levels, which affect thousands of computerized agents who respond dynamically to the collective participant inputs, as well as each Agnes response behavior to the inputs (See Structured, Meta, & ornerier, 2005 Harrison, Line, Carroll, & Carrey, 2007 for more tip on simulation modeling).Additionally, conflicting criteria counteract exercise participants from gaming the system and hale the multiple measures of effectiveness. Thus these types of decision support system technologies offer the type of rich and powerful research technology littorals with a high degree Of external and i nternal validity as well as reliability required for integrated decision support (Lie et al. , 2009 Linebacker et al. , 2009 Mustachios & Susann, 2009). Measures Dependent variables. The subordinate variable in our study consists of an integrated composite measure for decision effectiveness.This approach is consistent with recent research advocating integrated process and outcome measures for decision-making support system evaluation (Moral et al. , 2005 Phillips-Wren et al. , 2009). While the decision mark is to contain or control the outbreak and minimize totalities, the need to maintain welcome levels of public mood complicates this objective. Therefore the decision makers must consider the outcome of their decisions choices in toll of containing the outbreak and impact on public mood.Examining The Implications Of ProcessTherefore a further contribution of this study is that we also seek to take into account this mediating role of choice on decision effectiveness. In this stu dy we address several specific research questions 1) Does variation in the decision-making process result in variation in response choice 2) Does variation in response choice result in variation in decision effectiveness and 3) Can we also trace he effectiveness of different SAD processes as mediated through particular response choices?Since management can influence the SAD processes, question iii is likely to be of more interest than question two. However, if we only look at the direct relationship between SAD processes and effectiveness (I. E. , Dean & Sherman, 1 996), we might be attributing differences in effectiveness to process variation when these variations did not actually influence choices. Thus, we need to adequately discern which SAD processes are more effective in these situations and produce the most effective outcomes.Addressing these questions helps to clarify the integrated influences of process and choice on strategic decision-making effectiveness. This paper proc eeds as follows 1) We review related research on SAD, and leverage prior theory to develop hypotheses for an integrated process-choice-effectiveness SAD model 2) We examine the model and hypotheses through empirical analysis of data from a crisis response training exercise using an agent-based simulation decision support system technology 3) We present and discuss the results Of our analyses in relation to the model and hypotheses Copyright C 2010, GIG Global.Copying or distributing in print or electronic September 201 0 3 and 4) We conclude with a give-and-take of our findings along with implications for practitioners and future academic research. Theory development Prior work by Dean and Sherman (1 993, 1 996) offers an integrated decision-making model, for framing this study of SAD process-cooperativenesss. Their work examines the assumptions underlie the relationship between decision- making processes, response choices, and SAD effectiveness.The model proposes that variation i n decision-making process (political or rational) will produce different espouse choices, which result in variation in SAD effectiveness. However, empirical testing of their model is limited to the relationship between political and rational decision-making processes and variation in effectiveness alone, excluding the intermediate response choice variable.As the potential mediating implications of the response choice intermediate variable are thereby unexamined, we extend and examine Dean and Chairmans (1996) model to clarify the conflicting arguments in the prior SAD literature. We do this through examining the full model with the inclusion of the mediating allegations of response choice through our application to an extreme decision-making context (crisis response).Our approach is as follows 1) We extend Dean and Chairmans (1996) strategic decision-making relationship and effectiveness model of variation in process, response choice, and effectiveness by expanding their effectivene ss model to include the potential mediating effects of intermediate choices and 2) We then examine the competing arguments for process effectiveness in this context from Frederickson and Mitchell (1 984), Bourgeois and Eisenhower (1988), and Hart (1992).In Dean and Chairmans (1996) model variation in the strategic decision-making process (e. G. , Political or Rational approaches) produce variation in response choice, resulting in variation in effectiveness. The effectiveness outcomes therefore depend on the following 1 ) The strategic decision-making process utilized, and 2) The response strategy choices implemented.In order to clarify the conflicting dominant arguments in the literature for process effectiveness under uncertainty, as well as test the theorized mediating role of choice, we develop several base-line hypotheses to be ugly consistent with the previous literature. Replicating Dean and Chairmans (1996) model Hypothesis 1 Variation in strategic decommissioning process wil l be related to variation in effectiveness.Examining the sub elements of the implied Dean and Sherman (1996) model Hypothesis 2 Variation in strategic decommissioning process will be related to variation in response choice. Hypothesis 3 Variation in response choice will be related to variation in effectiveness. To examine the full model as proposed by Dean and Sherman (1 996), which proposes a mediating relationship but only examines the erect relationship, we distinguish between the direct effect of SAD process on effectiveness (HI ) and a mediating relationship acting through response choice.Whereas, Dean and Chairmans (1996) original model has choice as endogenous to the strategic decision-making and effectiveness relationship, we model response choice as an intermediate step and consider this as an expansion of the strategy decision-making and effectiveness relationship. We therefore derive hypothesis 4 to examine whether response choice has both a mediating and direct effect Ex amining the full Dean and Sherman (1996) model Hypothesis 4 Variation in strategic decommissioning process and variation in response choice will be related to variation in effectiveness. Copyright 0 201 0, GIG Global.Copying or distributing in print or electronic 4 International Journal of Decision Support System Technology, 2(3), 1-15, July-September 201 0 To examine the conflict in the literature regarding the inconsistency among the Frederickson and Mitchell (1984) and Bourgeois and Eisenhower (1988) propositions for uncertain and high velocity environments, as well as the Hart (1992) propositions for effectiveness by type of decision-making process, we develop hypotheses AAA and b Hypothesis AAA In highly turbulent environments, Rational decision-making processes should be positively related to effectiveness, while Political decommissioning processes should not throw off a positive relationship with effectiveness (Bourgeois & Eisenhower, 1 988 Hart, 1992). Hypothesis b In highl y turbulent environments, Rational decision-making processes should be negatively related to effectiveness, while Political decommissioning processes should have a positive relationship with effectiveness (Frederickson & Mitchell, 1984). Analytical considerations Study context Crisis events (I. E. , inborn disasters, terrorism, etc. Are environments characterized by vary levels of turbulence and ambiguity (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks, 2004). While government organizations differ from those in the private sector, research in the management field on SAD may be applicable to government organizations dealing with crisis events. For example, the core task of organizations is the creation and/or maintenance of a fit between the organizations internal strengths and capabilities and the demands placed on them by their environments. Government organizations must also draw upon unique resources and capabilities across various departments and levels of government to respond to c hallenges in their environments.Similarly, the levels of turbulence and ambiguity present in a government agency operating environment may also be direct contributors to the difficulties inherent to SAD in these contexts. The nature of the environmental pressure, turbidity, and outcome implications make this a unique and challenging operating environment. Prior related work on this topic from other fields includes the development of homeland defense strategy for the White House (KUDUS, 2004), the modeling of disease outbreaks (Ravager & Longing, 1985 Kurd & Hare, 2001 Kaplan, craft, & win, 2002, 2003 Bank, Gull, Kumar, Marathon, Cravings, Tutorial, & Wang, 2004 Craft, Win, & Wilkins, 2005).Further uses have included numerous academic, government, and practitioner publications on epidemiological, terrorism response, and homeland security and defense strategies (Deutsche, 1 963 Hoffman, 1981 Hugh & Selves, 2002 Ramirez-Marquee & Afar, 2009). Sample data We test our model and hypothese s using data collected from a multi-step approach consisting of an experiment (a U. S. Department of Homeland Security training exercise called Measured Response (MR.)) in conjunction with an intelligent agent-based simulation. We use this data to examine the extended Dean and Sherman (1996) model and the associated hypotheses for variation in SAD process, choice, and effectiveness. We use a computational experimentation methodological approach to do this.This approach consists of two steps 1) Using a validated survey instrument to collect data on strategy process and choice from a lab experiment with actual practitioners grouped into several response teams and 2) An intelligent agent-based simulation utilized in the exercise to produce data on the effectiveness of the groups SAD processes and response choices. We test Our model and its hypotheses through empirical analysis of a sub sample of 268 combined observations from the survey and simulation data collected from the exercise. Copyright C 201 0, GIG Global. Copying or distributing in print or electronic September 2010 5 Measured Response Exercise.The MR. Homeland Security training exercise consisted of nine teams of human agents comprised of three to five individuals each (representing their actual functional responsibilities in most asses) to play the roles of the Departments of Homeland Security (DISH), Health and Human operate (DISH), and Transportation (EDT) at the local, state, and federal levels. These human agents operated in a Joint operations Center environment where they were able to kill a variety of decisions and respond interactively to changes in the simulated environment throughout the exercise. wile Model. The Measured Response training exercise utilizes a synthetic environment as the decision support system technology for the exercise. This system uses a dynamic virtual computer simulation environment to simulate the outbreak ND dispersion of a biological agent on a mid-sized city in the United States. This outbreak affects tens of thousands of computer-based intelligent agents.These agents approximate the diversity of behavioral characteristics and demographics of the actual modeled population for the city. Additionally, we utilized pathogen-specific data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the simulation model to ensure the attack takes place in a realistic manner on the virtual population of intelligent agents. Further, the organizational aspects of the simulation model incorporate data from actual DISH and CDC response plans. The simulated scenario therefore replicates the actual characteristics Of a real-world attack in which the decommissioning process and response strategy choice can significantly affect outcomes in terms of infection rate, contagion spread, population terminal rate, and public mood.Given these factors, these types of decision support system technologies offer a rich and dynamic simulation environment, which largely alleviate s the common concerns previously associated with using simplistic homegrown or off-the-shelf simulation tools in academic research (Linebacker et al. , 2009 Mustachios & Susann, 2009). Specifically, our training exercise utilizes thousands of different participant decisions on a variety of teams, at multiple levels, which affect thousands of computerized agents who respond dynamically to the collective participant inputs, as well as each agents response behavior to the inputs (See Structured, Meta, & ornerier, 2005 Harrison, Line, Carroll, & Carrey, 2007 for more detail on simulation modeling).